Bitcoin Crash Imminent? Ben Cowen Analyzes the Final Cycle Triggers in Exclusive Interview with CryptoKid

Benjamin Cowen joined CryptoKid for a long conversation about the strength of the current cycle and the possibility of a deeper Bitcoin correction. The discussion focused on time-based indicators, market structure, historical cycles, monetary policy, altcoin performance, and the conditions needed for another wave of excitement. The conversation moved through several chapters, detailing the analyst’s current views on Bitcoin, altcoins, dominance, Ethereum, and the broader macro landscape.

Before diving into his analysis, Cowen reminded viewers that his analysis is educational and not financial advice. He also emphasized the need for caution as the cycle matures and technical signals weaken.

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Setting the Stage for a Potential Cycle End

Historically, the cycle usually ends when Bitcoin closes below the 50-week moving average, Cowen explained. He cited previous cycles (like 2014 and 2021) that confirmed this pattern, noting the weekly chart is currently sitting under that 50-week level. He stressed that weekly closes matter more than single wicks. If two weekly closes sit below the level, the probability that the cycle has ended becomes high. This outcome, he suggested, fits a time-based structure since the cycle is already deep into its window based on ROI from the lows.

The analyst pointed out that Bitcoin has not triggered several euphoric indicators in this cycle, like the Pi Cycle Top and the MVRV Z-Score. He said none of them reached their usual overheated conditions, which demonstrates that a cycle can finish without every indicator flashing and that time structure can override sentiment indicators.

Comparing the current structure with 2016, Cowen observed that both cycles had similar ROI profiles. He suggested this cycle could last slightly longer, but the window is tight.

Why This Cycle Looks Quiet

Addressing the lack of widespread social enthusiasm, Cowen presented a chart that color codes social interest. He explained that retail interest remains low, making the entire market feel more like 2019 rather than 2021. This subdued sentiment is tied to higher interest rates and quantitative tightening (QT), as Bitcoin was seen to rise during QT while altcoin valuations declined relative to Bitcoin, strengthening the case for higher dominance.

Cowen offered his estimated probabilities for a top: October carried a 40 percent chance, November held a 20 percent chance, and December held the remaining 40 percent. He considered November to be unlikely. He suggested the top is either behind the market or a slightly higher high may form in December, but stressed that such a high would not bring real retail excitement.

Bitcoin Near Cycle Inflection Levels

Cowen drew a comparison to 2019, when Bitcoin struggled to stay above $10,000 while altcoins bled. He noted the same thing is currently happening at the $100,000 level. He cited the sharp decline in altcoin strength, observing that altcoins devalued while Bitcoin attempted to hold round numbers.

The risk to altcoin holders is high, according to the analyst, who sees little reason to hold altcoins if Bitcoin shows weakness at the top of a cycle. He explained that liquidity rotates into Bitcoin while altcoins break support levels, creating a scenario that mirrors 2019 where Bitcoin holds relative strength while altcoins grind lower.

Cowen confirmed that while he holds some Ethereum, he keeps most of his crypto stack in Bitcoin, a stance that fits his long-term strategy for late-cycle conditions.

The Death Cross Signal

Cowen highlighted an ongoing pattern in Bitcoin’s daily chart which is that the cycle lows in consolidation phases often form on the day the death cross happens (when the 50-day moving average crosses under the 200-day). He said this event is close.

The analyst noted Bitcoin has a narrow chance to rally from that area, and failure to rally after the death cross increases the probability of a deeper downtrend. He warned that if Bitcoin remains under the 50-week on a closing basis, the market likely enters a six-month downturn. This downturn, he detailed, would align with previous cycle structures and could extend into the end of 2026 before conditions improve.

Cowen also rejected the idea that the next move will resemble the COVID crash followed by an immediate surge, calling the COVID event an anomaly. He explained that a normal cycle correction from an assumed peak of $126,000 back toward the upper $60,000 range fits typical technical behavior. The 200-week average and prior all-time highs sit near that range.

He added that even if Bitcoin has not topped yet, a 2026 downturn remains likely. Cowen explained that euphoric extensions create deeper corrections and that diminishing returns keep eventual downside within a predictable range. He considered a 66 to 74 percent correction possible if Bitcoin overshoots to the upside.

The analyst concluded this section by reiterating that no one knows if the high is confirmed, but the 50-week moving average remains the most important level to watch.

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Altcoins Under Pressure and Altseason Conditions

The analyst stated that altcoin weakness against Bitcoin will likely continue. Every major rally that moved Bitcoin to new highs also boosted dominance. Cowen expects altcoins to put in lower lows against Bitcoin over the coming weeks, suggesting the short-term outlook does not favor holding them.

However, an altseason is possible, but it requires lower interest rates. Cowen explained that major altseasons occur when the federal funds rate sits near or below the two-year yield. The current environment remains restrictive because the federal funds rate is about 69 basis points above the two-year yield, conditions under which altseasons do not form.

Cowen pointed towards necessary catalysts that the government shutdown would need to end, unemployment would need to rise, and the Federal Reserve would need to issue a significant rate cut, such as 50 basis points (with the next scheduled opportunity in December). He believes an altseason becomes possible only if Bitcoin rises at least 50 percent from current levels and enters a euphoric phase, requiring liquidity expansion and a shift away from restrictive monetary conditions.

The alternate path, Cowen said, is for Bitcoin to hold above $100,000, drain alt liquidity, and then break down in December, mirroring parts of the last cycle. He added that quantitative easing supports altcoin bottoms over the long term, but Bitcoin often dips first before recovering, and he speculated that next cycle dominance likely tops earlier, moving away from the heavy Bitcoin maximalism seen in the past.

Bitcoin Dominance and Ethereum’s Position

Cowen said he expects dominance to rise further, with historical patterns showing lows in September and a steady climb afterward, resembling 2020 and 2017. He suggested dominance often peaks around early December. The base case places dominance back near its highs, somewhere between 66 and 70 percent, although Ethereum’s higher low against Bitcoin complicates the idea of new dominance highs. Cowen confirmed he remains bullish on dominance until December, planning to turn bearish after that point.

Addressing Crypto Kid’s question about Ethereum, which dropped to $3,300 after rising to $4,700, Cowen admitted the pullback surprised him because Ethereum fell under its bull market support band, which did not happen in 2017 during that stage.

Cowen confirmed he bought more Ethereum in April and sold some near the highs. He warned that if Bitcoin confirms a cycle top through two weekly closes below the 50-week average, Ethereum will likely return to its regression band and stay near those levels through 2026.

He said it remains possible for Ethereum to form a higher high even if Bitcoin forms a lower high, as the ETH/BTC pair structure can support such a move. He noted that Ethereum must reach at least $5,300 for the bullish butterfly harmonic pattern to remain valid, but suggested the pattern’s invalidation would be a good thing as it avoids a deep bear cycle that would send Ethereum below its 2022 low.

In closing, Ben reiterates that future bull markets await, even if this top is in. “There’s going to be future cycles,” he assures. For now, watch the impending death cross, where past lows have formed. A rally post-cross could extend the cycle but a failure might confirm six months of downturn before 2026 recovery.

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is a summary of Benjamin Cowen’s market analysis and is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other sort of recommendation. You should not treat any content as a promise or guarantee of results. Consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.